Who got it right? 2014 Political Predictions and their outcome
by Rep. Bill Post
In January of 2014, Anna Staver at the Statesman Journal asked me for my 2014 political predictions and then my reactions to how they turned out.
As you’ll see in the article below I was rated "Mostly Correct" and I can live with that. I did correctly pick that the ACA and Cover Oregon would cost some folks elections nationwide. I also said it would hurt "anyone attached" to Cover Oregon. The reporter says that’s where I "went to mostly correct" instead of "completely correct". I kind of disagree. Did Gov. Kitzhaber win? Yes. Did he win as big as he would or could have? No. He didn’t even get 50% of the vote. Yes the D’s won seats in both the House and Senate. So, I will live with "mostly correct", sadly.
Here is my reaction to Anna on my predictions:
Just to clarify, I still stand that I was pretty darn close to 100% correct. Here is my statement from last year (taken from the S-J article Anna refers to):
"Bill Post: The Republican who is running for Rep. Kim Thatcher’s seat this year thinks the Affordable Care Act and Cover Oregon will continue as the biggest stories of 2014.
"Both will continue to be plagued by technical glitches and the price tag that those who do sign on will be shocked by," Post said. "This story will be the one that continues from the primary in May through the General in November. It will hurt anyone attached to it.""
And here was my reaction to how my predictions came out (as sent to Anna earlier this week): "The so called”red wave that swept across America was spurred in large part by the ACA. Here in Oregon, Cover Oregon did remain a story throughout the year as I predicted, in fact so much so that it actually made what looked on paper to not be much of a Governors race into a pretty close contest meaning that my statement”it will hurt anyone attached to it DID come true both nationally and in Oregon (as Kitzhaber did win but not in spectacular fashion nor by even a 50% margin). Cover Oregon is of course now gone, sort of, and has been replaced by the national program."
So, yes, my prediction was at least 90% correct. Will my 2015 be as well? You’ll have to see in Friday’s edition of Anna’s column.